New York City’s murder rate has long served as a national barometer for urban crime trends. After experiencing a dramatic rise in violence in the 1980s and early 1990s, the city saw an unprecedented drop in homicides over the past three decades. In 2023, NYC recorded 391 murders, a sharp contrast to the 2,262 homicides logged in 1990. Although the city’s current murder rate—roughly 4.5 per 100,000 residents—remains well below the national average, recent upticks during the pandemic and post-pandemic years have sparked new concerns.
To understand how New York City arrived at this point—and what the future might hold—it’s important to examine the city’s complex relationship with violent crime across the last 50 years.
A Brief History of Murder in New York City
From the crime waves of the 1970s to the law enforcement crackdowns of the Giuliani and Bloomberg eras, New York City’s murder rate has undergone some of the most dramatic swings in modern U.S. history. These changes have mirrored broader shifts in drug policy, policing tactics, socioeconomic factors, and public health crises. The timeline below highlights the major turning points that have defined NYC’s homicide landscape.
1970s: A City in Crisis — Over 1,600 Murders Annually by Mid-Decade
The 1970s were marked by urban decay, rising drug use, and widespread disinvestment in public services. By 1972, the city surpassed 1,600 homicides annually, with some years approaching 1,800. Crime was fueled by heroin epidemics, economic stagnation, and strained police-community relations. The murder rate often hovered near 21–25 per 100,000 residents, cementing New York’s reputation as a dangerous and volatile city.
1990: Peak of the Crime Wave — 2,262 Murders (~30.7 per 100,000)
New York hit its deadliest point in 1990, with a staggering 2,262 recorded murders—the highest in city history. The crack cocaine epidemic, rising gang violence, and underfunded law enforcement overwhelmed city resources. The murder rate reached nearly 31 per 100,000, sparking national outrage and demands for aggressive policing reforms. This year became the tipping point that ushered in a new era of crime control policies.
2000s: A Crime Collapse — Fewer Than 600 Murders Annually
By the early 2000s, New York’s murder numbers had plummeted. In 2004, the city recorded just 570 homicides, a dramatic drop of over 75% from the 1990 peak. The decline was credited to a combination of “broken windows” policing, CompStat data systems, and economic revitalization, though critics pointed to racial disparities and over-policing in minority communities. Despite the controversy, NYC became a case study for urban crime reduction.
2010–2019: Continued Decline with Stability
Throughout the 2010s, New York City maintained historically low murder rates. Annual homicides hovered between 290 and 350, with 2017 and 2018 among the safest years on record. The decline was widely hailed as proof that long-term investment in policing, community programs, and public housing could sustain safety. However, structural inequalities and mistrust of law enforcement remained persistent challenges, particularly in outer-borough communities.
2020–2021: Pandemic Surge Reverses Decade of Progress
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted this progress. In 2020, murders rose sharply to 468, followed by 488 in 2021. Though these figures remained well below 1990s levels, the increase alarmed city officials and residents alike. Experts cited economic instability, the diversion of police resources, and social unrest as key drivers. The rise mirrored national patterns, but its psychological impact in a city long considered a crime-reduction success story was profound.
2022–2024: Modest Recovery and Cautious Optimism
The years following the pandemic have brought measured improvements. NYC saw 438 homicides in 2022, 391 in 2023, and is projected to finish 2024 with roughly 375 murders. While still higher than pre-pandemic lows, the trend suggests a return to relative stability. Ongoing initiatives—including gun buyback programs, neighborhood intervention teams, and youth engagement—are credited with contributing to the recent declines. Still, officials warn that long-term safety depends on broader systemic reforms, including mental health infrastructure, affordable housing, and community trust in law enforcement.
Homicides Over the Last 10 Years
Over the past decade, New York City’s homicide numbers have remained historically low, especially compared to the 1990s—but recent years have brought noticeable volatility. Following record lows in 2017 and 2018, homicides surged in 2020 and 2021 during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, civil unrest, and economic instability. Though the city did not return to the crisis levels of the 1980s or early ’90s, the increases served as a stark reminder that public safety gains can be fragile. Since then, the city has made a modest recovery, with murder rates slowly trending downward by 2024.
Here’s a year-by-year summary of murder counts and estimated rates per 100,000 residents:
| Year | Homicides | Rate per 100,000 |
| 2014 | 333 | 3.9 |
| 2015 | 352 | 4.2 |
| 2016 | 335 | 4.1 |
| 2017 | 292 | 3.5 |
| 2018 | 295 | 3.5 |
| 2019 | 319 | 3.9 |
| 2020 | 468 | 5.6 |
| 2021 | 488 | 5.9 |
| 2022 | 438 | 5.3 |
| 2023 | 391 | 4.7 |
| 2024 | ~375 | ~4.5 (est.) |
The accompanying chart should feature a line graph from 2014 to 2024, highlighting the sharp uptick in 2020–2021 and the gradual decline since. These visual trends underscore how recent policy reforms, neighborhood programs, and city investments may be helping stabilize violent crime, even if murder rates remain slightly elevated compared to pre-pandemic lows.
Last Five Years in Focus
New York City’s most recent five-year trend in homicides reflects broader national shifts—marked by pandemic-era spikes, followed by stabilization driven by focused interventions and community investment. While NYC remains one of the safest large cities in the U.S. by homicide rate, the uptick in murders from 2020 to 2021 prompted renewed debates over policing, justice reform, and public health responses.
2020–2021: A Disrupted City Faces a Murder Spike
Like much of the nation, New York saw a sudden and significant increase in homicides during the early pandemic years. In 2020, the city recorded 468 murders, followed by 488 in 2021—a level not seen in over a decade. Public health emergencies, reduced policing capacity, court delays, and the fallout from the George Floyd protests disrupted traditional crime prevention frameworks. Economic hardship, school closures, and spikes in mental health crises disproportionately affected vulnerable communities, particularly in parts of Brooklyn, the Bronx, and Queens. Gun-related violence rose sharply, with an increase in retaliatory shootings and street disputes turning deadly. The NYPD faced staffing strain and criticism over stop-and-frisk legacy issues, complicating efforts to contain violence. These two years marked a pivotal moment, breaking nearly a decade of sustained crime reductions.
2022–2024: Signs of Stability and Targeted Recovery
Beginning in 2022, New York’s homicide numbers began a slow descent—438 in 2022, 391 in 2023, and an estimated 375 in 2024. These gains have been credited to strategic policing efforts, expanded violence intervention programs, and greater coordination with public health resources. Initiatives like Precision Policing, the Cure Violence model, and increased investment in youth outreach and mental health care contributed to the rebound. Mayor Eric Adams’ administration prioritized gun recovery efforts and neighborhood safety patrols while maintaining a focus on police accountability. The city’s Gun Violence Prevention Task Force, launched in 2022, also bolstered support for community groups working to interrupt cycles of violence. While challenges persist, these collective efforts signal a cautious return to the city’s long-standing trajectory of safer streets.
Why Is New York City’s Murder Rate Still a Concern?
While New York City’s murder rate remains far below its historical highs and significantly lower than many other major U.S. cities, recent surges in violence have raised renewed questions about the root causes of homicide in the five boroughs. From gun trafficking and gang activity to housing instability and systemic inequities, a range of deeply interconnected issues continues to challenge efforts to keep the city safe—particularly in marginalized neighborhoods.
Understanding these drivers is essential to crafting long-term strategies for sustained violence reduction.
Gang Activity and Neighborhood Conflict
Though New York’s traditional street gangs have become less centralized over the years, violent neighborhood crews and youth cliques remain active drivers of homicides, particularly in the Bronx and Brooklyn. These loosely affiliated groups often engage in retaliatory violence sparked by social media conflicts, territorial disputes, or personal grievances, sometimes with tragic outcomes. According to NYPD data, a significant share of shootings involve individuals under age 25, often tied to groups operating at the block level rather than traditional crime syndicates. The city’s recent focus on “Precision Policing” targets these patterns, but social media-fueled disputes and informal alliances make this violence difficult to predict and prevent. Without ongoing investment in youth programs, conflict resolution, and violence interruption, these group dynamics are likely to persist.
Influx of Illegal Firearms from Other States
Despite New York City’s strict local gun laws, the city continues to face an influx of firearms from other states with lax regulations and enforcement, particularly along the I-95 corridor—a pipeline often referred to as the “Iron Pipeline.” States like Georgia, Virginia, and Pennsylvania are frequent sources of trafficked firearms that end up in NYC. Straw purchases and unregulated private sales in those states allow guns to cross into New York illegally, undermining local efforts to keep weapons off the street. In 2022, the NYPD reported recovering over 7,000 illegal firearms, many traced back to out-of-state sellers. This steady supply of weapons fuels street-level disputes and retaliatory violence. City and state leaders have called for stronger federal regulation and interstate cooperation, but the flow remains difficult to control.
Low Clearance Rates in Some Boroughs
Although New York City’s overall homicide clearance rate is relatively high—averaging between 60–65% in recent years—some boroughs and precincts experience significantly lower rates. In parts of the Bronx and Brooklyn, cases involving gang-related or witness-intimidated shootings are notoriously hard to solve, often due to strained community-police relationships. When justice is inconsistent, public confidence erodes, and retaliatory violence can become normalized. Fear of retribution also plays a major role: in high-crime areas, cooperating with authorities is often viewed as putting one’s life or family at risk. While the NYPD has expanded witness protection efforts and anonymous tip programs, solving homicides in these environments remains a systemic challenge.
Legacy of Systemic Disinvestment
Much like other large American cities, New York’s history of redlining, housing segregation, and uneven public investment has created concentrated pockets of poverty and instability. Generations of underinvestment in education, public housing, healthcare, and infrastructure have left communities vulnerable to cycles of violence. In areas like Brownsville, East New York, Mott Haven, and parts of Jamaica, Queens, these conditions manifest as higher rates of unemployment, housing insecurity, and exposure to trauma—all of which correlate with increased violence. Even with crime reduction programs in place, the legacy of systemic disinvestment continues to shape where violence happens and who is most affected.
Economic and Mental Health Disparities
The pandemic brought renewed attention to the link between economic instability and public safety. High unemployment, lack of access to mental health services, and rising housing costs have all contributed to elevated stress and tension in many communities. In 2021, NYC’s Department of Health reported a sharp increase in psychological distress and substance use, particularly among low-income and minority populations. These stressors—combined with social isolation, overcrowded housing, and limited public support—can exacerbate interpersonal conflicts and increase the likelihood of violence. Advocates argue that homicide prevention must be approached through a public health lens, with resources for mental health and community wellness treated as core components of crime reduction.
While these factors help explain the why behind New York City’s recent uptick in homicides, it’s equally important to explore the where. Murders are not evenly distributed across the city—they are heavily concentrated in specific neighborhoods, often reflecting patterns of historical neglect and contemporary inequality. The next section explores which boroughs and communities are most affected, and what is being done to turn the tide.
Geographic Breakdown: NYC Neighborhoods With the Highest Homicides
While New York City’s overall homicide numbers remain low compared to historical peaks, the violence is not evenly distributed across the five boroughs. Certain neighborhoods—particularly in the Bronx and Brooklyn—continue to experience disproportionately high rates of gun violence, reflecting long-standing issues like poverty, housing insecurity, and systemic disinvestment. In these communities, murder rates often far exceed the citywide average of ~4.5 per 100,000, revealing deep geographic and racial disparities in public safety outcomes.
Below are some of the most affected areas, based on recent NYPD data from 2023 and early 2024:
Brownsville (Brooklyn): ~32 per 100,000
Brownsville consistently records one of the highest homicide rates in the city. Despite its rich cultural history and ongoing revitalization efforts, the neighborhood faces entrenched challenges—including poverty, high incarceration rates, and a legacy of public housing neglect. Gun violence here is often linked to youth crew rivalries and limited access to employment or educational pathways.
South Bronx: ~27–30 per 100,000 (varies by precinct)
Neighborhoods such as Mott Haven, Hunts Point, and Morrisania have some of the highest per capita homicide rates in the Bronx. These communities grapple with multiple stressors: housing instability, chronic underinvestment, and strained police-community relations. Many residents live below the poverty line, and support services are often overwhelmed or underfunded.
East New York (Brooklyn): ~28 per 100,000
Despite improvements in public infrastructure, East New York remains a hotspot for violent crime. The neighborhood has historically suffered from redlining, high eviction rates, and fractured schooling systems—all of which contribute to persistent cycles of violence. Community groups are working to change the narrative, but resource disparities remain.
Jamaica and South Jamaica (Queens): ~18–20 per 100,000
While Queens overall has one of the lowest murder rates of the five boroughs, pockets like South Jamaica see markedly higher rates of gun violence, driven by a mix of gang presence, economic dislocation, and policing gaps. Efforts are underway to expand youth programs and re-entry services, but challenges remain.
Harlem (Manhattan): ~15–17 per 100,000
Harlem has seen significant gentrification and economic growth, but certain areas—especially East Harlem—continue to experience elevated homicide rates. The lingering impact of public housing disrepair, substance use disorders, and policing disparities fuels occasional surges in violence.
By contrast, neighborhoods like the Upper East Side, Park Slope, or Staten Island’s South Shore have homicide rates of under 1 per 100,000, demonstrating the wide safety gap between affluent and under-resourced communities. This geographic polarization highlights the urgent need for place-based solutions that focus not only on crime suppression, but also on root-cause investments in health, housing, and education.
New York City vs. Other Major U.S. Cities
In the context of other large urban areas, New York City’s homicide statistics present a unique narrative. In 2023, NYC recorded 391 homicides, far fewer than Chicago’s 617 and Philadelphia’s 408, despite having a significantly larger population than both. This places New York near the bottom in terms of per capita homicide rate among major U.S. cities—roughly 4.7 per 100,000 compared to the national urban average of around 16 per 100,000.
However, raw totals don’t tell the full story. While New York has succeeded in keeping overall violence low, persistent hot spots within the city continue to mirror the concentrated violence seen in cities like Chicago or Baltimore, albeit at a smaller scale. The disparity between boroughs—and even individual precincts—remains stark.
In terms of violent crime overall, NYC fares well:
- Violent crime rate (2023): ~550 per 100,000
- Homicide rate: ~4.7 per 100,000
- Gun-related homicide rate: ~3.9 per 100,000
These figures place New York well below cities like St. Louis (~70 per 100,000), Baltimore (~56), Chicago (~21), and Philadelphia (~26). In fact, New York City currently has one of the lowest murder rates among major U.S. metros, thanks in part to its investment in community-based interventions, advanced data systems like CompStat, and strict gun control laws.
Yet despite these successes, city leaders caution against complacency. The post-2020 surge in violence exposed lingering vulnerabilities—especially in Black and Latino communities that continue to experience under-policing and over-policing simultaneously. The challenge now lies in maintaining gains while closing the equity gap, ensuring that every neighborhood benefits from safety—not just the most privileged.
Forecast: What Lies Ahead for New York City in 2025 and Beyond?
As New York City emerges from the volatility of the early 2020s, early 2025 data suggests a continued decline in homicides, reflecting the city’s ongoing efforts to stabilize public safety after pandemic-era disruptions. With an estimated ~375 murders projected for 2024 and early 2025 figures trending even lower, the city may be approaching its lowest homicide total since the 1950s. While the numbers indicate progress, experts emphasize that lasting change will depend on structural reform, long-term investment, and targeted interventions in the neighborhoods still hardest hit by violence.
The outlook for NYC is cautiously optimistic—but not without caveats.
Several trends suggest forward momentum:
- Early 2025 data points to the lowest monthly homicide counts since 2017, signaling a broader rebound in citywide safety.
- National comparisons show a similar trend, with violent crime falling in most large cities in 2024 and continuing into 2025, according to FBI and BJS projections.
- New York’s investments in public safety alternatives—such as mobile mental health crisis teams, youth workforce programs, and community-led anti-violence groups—are gaining traction in high-risk areas like the South Bronx and East Brooklyn.
- Gun recovery efforts and federal/state task forces targeting illegal firearm trafficking continue to curb the influx of weapons from the Iron Pipeline.
Still, persistent drivers of violence remain: gang disputes, economic precarity, untreated trauma, and under-resourced schools continue to impact vulnerable communities. A realistic projection for 2025 might see homicides fall another 5–8%, landing between 340 and 360 murders for the year. A continued drop into the low 300s by 2026–2027 is possible—but only if the city sustains its investment in violence prevention, housing, mental health care, and community trust-building.
The city’s current homicide rate—~4.5 per 100,000—is already among the lowest for major U.S. metros. But the stubborn concentration of violence in areas like Brownsville, East New York, and parts of the Bronx highlights the unfinished work of equity-centered public safety. As city leaders aim to “end the epidemic” of gun violence, many advocates argue that a public health framework—rather than a purely enforcement-based model—must define the future.
Our Expert-Backed Sources
Below are credible, expert-supported sources that inform the analysis and projections presented above. These reports and datasets offer further insight into NYC’s crime trends, neighborhood disparities, and future outlook:
🔗 NYC Mayor’s Office to Prevent Gun Violence – 2024 Annual Report
Breaks down violence interruption efforts, funding, and homicide trends by borough from 2020–2024.
🔗 NYPD Crime Statistics – Official Monthly CompStat Report (2024–2025)
Weekly and monthly updates on homicide totals, clearance rates, and precinct-level trends.
🔗 John Jay College – NYC Gun Violence Trends and Policy Solutions (2024)
Provides deep-dive analysis into firearm violence in NYC, policy shifts, and projections through 2026.
🔗 Brookings Institution – The Geography of Urban Violence (2024 Edition)
National report comparing homicide distribution and equity gaps across U.S. metros, with a focus on NYC neighborhoods.
🔗 NYC Office of the Comptroller – “The Cost of Violence” Report (2024)
Analyzes how gun violence economically impacts New York’s communities, budgets, and public health outcomes.
🔗 Bureau of Justice Statistics – 2024 National Crime Trend Update
Includes comparison data for violent crime and homicide rates across major U.S. cities, highlighting NYC’s trajectory.